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:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Aug 20 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 20-Aug 22 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 20-Aug 22 2017 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 00-03UT 5 (G1) 4 4 03-06UT 5 (G1) 3 3 06-09UT 3 3 3 09-12UT 3 3 2 12-15UT 5 (G1) 2 2 15-18UT 3 2 2 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 3 3 3 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on day one (Aug 20) due to continued coronal hole high speed stream effects. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 20-Aug 22 2017 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 20 2017 0152 UTC Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 20-Aug 22 2017 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts for the forecast period (20-22 Aug).
|eit 171||eit 195||eit 284||eit 304|
Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
|LASCO C2||LASCO C3|
The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line.
The most prominent features are the sun spots.
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
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|Sunspot numbers||F10.7CM Radio flux||AP|
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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.
|Solar wind||Satellite impact||Xray flux|
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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Right: 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
|Northern Auroral map||Southern Auroral map|
Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.